A seasonal forecast is a statistical summary of the daily weather, calculated from the forecast model, generally up to six months ahead. Since it is not possible to expect the provision of univocal values of an expected atmospheric quantity at such extended time intervals, the most used systems are based on an ensemble of different atmospheric evolutions, from which it is possible to obtain average values and calculate the expected anomalies for the seasons to come with respect to historical periods for which a reference modeling climatology is available.

After having verified, in the first year of activity, a good agreement between the seasonal forecast and the observations recorded over most of the Italian territory in a case study relating to a heat wave, both in terms of temperature and precipitation, the work continued in the present year by further analyzing the seasonal forecasts and their performance over Italy, as well as their possible application in the electro-energy sector.

Specifically, the activity was divided into three themes. First, seasonal forecasts of 2m temperature were verified on a case study at a national level, using meteorological reanalysis data available in RSE as a comparison. Secondly, an initial evaluation was conducted to predict the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), the reference index normally used to identify fire danger, which increasingly constitutes a threat to the electricity system.

Finally, measured electrical load data available for the city of Milan were used to find relationships with meteorological data on a seasonal time scale.

The document is available on the site in Italian