The project aims to develop models and tools capable of making the power grid resilient to various threats. It consists of three main research streams, corresponding to as many work packages: threats; vulnerability and security; resilience enhancement. This document presents the activities carried out and the results obtained in 2020.

The types of threats analyzed were mainly strong winds and the formation of snow sleeves on overhead power lines. These threats were studied not only based on real past events using the MERIDA meteorological reanalysis dataset or in real-time through the experimental stations set up in the previous year, but also projected into the future using next-generation climate models (Euro-CORDEX).

Additional threats investigated included floods and landslides caused by heavy rainfall, analyzing specific case studies in detail and using specific models, appropriately adapted and compared to assess their performance. Special attention was also given to the characterization of large-scale phenomena, such as atmospheric blocking conditions, which can be indicators of extreme weather events, and finally to the observation of the temporal and spatial evolution of CO2 concentrations over Europe, which still shows a systematic increase in this greenhouse gas, primarily emitted by the electricity and energy sector.

Regarding vulnerability and security, accurate models were developed for the vulnerability of overhead lines to the combined effects of strong winds and wet snow, and for the vulnerability of insulators against two important flashover mechanisms induced by atmospheric pollution. Preliminary models were proposed to account for the effects of cyber-attacks on control and defense systems in modern power grids. A method was formulated to identify the necessary redispatching actions of conventional generation and the reduction of generation from renewable sources, to probabilistically ensure compliance with safety constraints in N and N-1 conditions, under forecast uncertainties in load and renewable generation.

For the evaluation of the safety of concrete dams against seismic events, a seismic wave propagation model was developed, capable of accurately reproducing the seismic response of concrete dams, extended to three-dimensional cases. The model’s effectiveness was evaluated by comparing test case results with analytical or numerical solutions from the literature. Of particular interest is the technical and dissemination activity conducted internationally in the hydroelectric sector, including a first application of the XFEM method for studying cracks in concrete dams.

Methodologies were developed to assess resilience indicators in long-term analyses and to identify the optimal set of resilience improvement measures by conducting a cost-benefit analysis over different time horizons, also considering the effects of climate change. The progress of the software implementation of the RELIEF 2.0 tool is presented.

Snow sleeves on conductors of overhead power lines, which cause network failures, were studied and monitored on medium-voltage lines through data collected from stations.

Thanks to the WILD 2.0 experimental stations, it was possible to improve WOLF forecasts by also considering the characteristics of spans. Indirect risk factors for tree falls were analyzed in a sample area, and a prototype of a monitoring and nowcasting system for severe thunderstorms was developed.