The project primarily aims to support institutions on the evolution of the national power system. This report presents the results of the completed activities in the project’s second year.

Regarding the scenarios for the governance of the energy system, RSE’s support to institutions in 2020 led to the development of the final scenario for the Long-Term Strategy (LTS) by 2050 and the initial scenarios aligned with the available guidance from the European Green Deal. These activities were conducted by directly participating in governmental tables (interministerial and towards the European Commission). For the development of the new scenarios, quantitative analysis models were used, particularly the new national TIMES RSE model. Continuous updates and development of these models are therefore part of the project activities.

Some research activities also focused on energy efficiency scenarios, particularly in the industrial and civil sectors. The aim is to assess the feasibility, potential, and sustainability of the efficiency measures planned for energy-intensive sectors and to estimate the effectiveness of the governance measures intended to achieve decarbonization targets. These studies and analyses provide valuable elements, assessments, and tools for institutional decision-makers, enterprises to optimize their performances, and citizens to enhance their awareness and management of their consumption.

Other activities supporting scenario formulation included data collection for 2025 on electric generation and storage technologies (conducted in collaboration with the IEA, Nuclear Energy Agency, and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), which contributed to the five-year publication “Projected Costs of Generating Electricity.” Additionally, the development of scenarios and hypotheses for territorial allocation of new wind and solar capacities, as well as exploration of new possibilities like floating solar or agrivoltaics, was undertaken.

WP 2 focuses on Integration with Environmental Scenarios and aims to develop methodologies for harmonization and integration between energy and environmental models to create a Harmonized Assessment Model for defining and evaluating energy strategies, with particular reference to their impact on air quality at national and regional levels. Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) are also performed on current and 2030 national electricity generation scenarios.

The project also includes two specific WPs for analysis on the system and electricity markets, where notable activities include cost-benefit analyses of the National Transmission Network (RTN) Development Plan regarding the main planned interconnections, the development of methodologies to evaluate the needs for distribution network development, and advancements in tools and models for simulating national and European electricity markets.

In terms of regulatory support activities, the strategic role of the RdS expressed through RSE’s activities has led to the establishment of an entire WP in the project dedicated to supporting ARERA for innovative regulation and the development of technical regulations. In addition to direct support to ARERA, a significant part of the WP is dedicated to three activities related to the circular transition to explore its potential impacts on the national electro-energy system.