The activities conducted in 2024 aim to finalize the integration between the simplified air quality model SIMBAD and the TIMES energy model, including health costs due to air pollution exposure in the TIMES objective function and enabling energy planning that also considers public health impacts. The integration was tested on the National Energy and Climate Plan, submitted by Italy to the European Commission at the end of June 2024, to verify how energy planning can be influenced by introducing an indicator that considers air pollution impacts.

The comparison between the PNIEC and the scenario that includes health cost assessment was analysed in terms of final consumption, CO2 emissions and air pollutants (primary particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, ammonia, volatile organic compounds and sulphur oxides), particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide concentration, and finally, health impact indicators.

The analysis showed how biomass use in residential heating could negatively impact air pollution, therefore the energy model tends to plan a greater spread of natural gas boilers, which are less polluting and, moreover, more efficient, at the expense of a partial increase of CO2 emissions.

Simultaneously, development and update activities for the SIMBAD model were carried forward, including: a) the implementation of the agricultural sector in the modelling chain, which allows inclusion of a non-energy sector key to air quality planning; b) the formalization of dynamic assessment, which will enable studying energy and emission scenarios as projections. In time.

The Report is available on the Italian site