The RSE article “Unravelling the uncertainties in the climate-water-energy interplay: a distributed analysis of the Italian territory”, published on Renewable Energy, analyzes the impact of climate change on hydropower production in Italy, integrating climate scenarios with hydrological and energy production models for a comprehensive assessment.

The article is written by Alessandro Amaranto, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesca Viterbo, Riccardo Bonanno and Elisabetta Garofalo from RSE’s Sustainable Development and Energy Sources Department and Giovanni Braca from ISPRA.

Hydropower is a key component of Italy’s energy mix, accounting for over 40% of the country’s renewable energy production. However, variations in water resources due to climate change pose significant challenges to the stability and security of the national energy system. The study combines six regional climate models with the BIGBANG hydrological model to estimate future surface water availability under various emission scenarios and then assesses their impact on hydropower production using a data-driven model.

The results highlight significant spatial heterogeneity: while northern Italy, home to most of the country’s hydropower capacity, could maintain stable production with slight increases in some scenarios, southern Italy faces potential reductions of up to 30% by the end of the century, particularly during the summer months. On a national level, projections indicate relative stability under moderate emission scenarios, while the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) predicts a 12% reduction in overall hydropower production.

This analysis underscores the importance of targeted adaptation strategies and emission reduction policies to mitigate the effects of climate change on hydropower production, while simultaneously strengthening the resilience of Italy’s energy system.