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An advanced platform for power system security assessment accounting for forecast uncertainties

Publications - Article

An advanced platform for power system security assessment accounting for forecast uncertainties

The paper describes the architecture of a platform aimed at power system safety assessments in view of forecast uncertainties, developed as part of the European iTesla project. It then illustrates the methods for validating both the uncertainty model and the entire security assessment process. Some results related to a French transmission grid model are presented as well.

The increasing operating uncertainties associated with renewable energy forecasting are becoming a key element for assessing the security of future operating states of the power system. The iTesla project, which is part of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Program, addressed this challenge and achieved several important goals, including the development of the architecture of a security platform.

The platform implements a stochastic dependency model to simulate a cloud of plausible ‘future’ states – due to renewable and load forecast errors – around the predicted grid state, and evaluates security on those states after sampling the uncertainty cloud. The paper focuses on the architecture of the platform and the validation of both the uncertainty model and the entire evaluation process of power system security. Results obtained on a model of the French grid are also presented.

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