Wind energy is one of the main renewable resources contributing to climate change mitigation policies in national and international energy transition strategies. However, climate change itself can affect the availability of wind resources due to potential future changes in large-scale circulation patterns. This study aims to understand whether, how, and to what extent current and future climate changes will influence wind power production in Italy. In this analysis, the 10 m wind speed from regional climate models Euro CORDEX was corrected using the MERIDA meteorological reanalysis, and wind power production was calculated using a reference turbine commonly installed in Italian wind farms.

Variations in wind resource availability are analyzed from the reference period 1986-2005 for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results show a predominantly weak and statistically insignificant climate signal for the RCP 4.5 scenario, whereas a more pronounced and significant signal is highlighted for the RCP 8.5 scenario in the medium to long term, indicating a decrease in wind power production. Specifically, the findings suggest that future wind power planning should focus more on certain areas of the eastern Italian coast and southeastern regions, particularly offshore areas. In these regions, the RCP 8.5 scenario indicates the smallest decrease in overall annual wind power production, while for the RCP 4.5 scenario, the medium and long term foresee a slight increase in annual wind power production and a growth trend in the short term, especially in the spring season.