What are the costs necessary to support the electrification of the Italian residential sector? What primary energy saving measures can be achieved? The article tries to answer these questions, providing energy and economic evaluations for the progressive path of electrification of households’ needs, also using the MOIRAE bottom-up modeling approach, already developed by the authors.

Therefore, the study implemented the MOIRAE model, updating the input data, using ad hoc statistical methods, and integrating with different data sets provided by the Italian Institute of Statistics. Secondly, the model was developed, validated and implemented also taking into account the evolution of population growth trends. Then an economic model was developed based on the fixed and variable costs of electrical and heating appliances. Subsequently, the modeling approach was calibrated on consumption data, detailed for the different Italian regions and validated against historical data. Finally, using the MOIRAE model, various scenarios were developed for the electrification of Italian households’ consumption, replacing fossil fuels, taking and not taking into account household budget constraints.

For the different scenarios analyzed, the study examined the variations in primary energy consumption and the variation in variable and fixed costs.