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Future projections and return levels of wet-snow load on overhead lines and heavy snowfalls

Publications - Paper

Future projections and return levels of wet-snow load on overhead lines and heavy snowfalls

Heavy snowfall can have serious effects on the national transmission and distribution network, as they can trigger the formation of ice sleeves on power lines whose weights can cause failures and consequently interruptions in energy supply. Using 12 high-resolution Euro-CORDEX climate models, future projections for the periods 2021-2040, 2031-2050, 2041-2060 indicate that wet-snow phenomena are expected to decrease, as snowfall will transform into rain due to global warming, while these events will intensify in higher alpine regions.

Heavy snowfalls can have serious effects on the national transmission and distribution network, as they can trigger the formation of ice sleeves on power lines whose weight can cause failures and consequently interruptions in energy supply. Using 12 high-resolution Euro-CORDEX climate models (~12km resolution) under the RCP8.5 (“Business-As-Usual” scenario) and RCP4.5 (scenario with partial greenhouse gas reductions), future projections of wet-snow events (WSF) and ice sleeve loading (WSL) have been developed to provide information needed for action plans aimed at strengthening network resilience. Additionally, MERIDA reanalysis was used to: i) implement and validate the Makkonen model describing ice sleeve growth on cylindrical conductors; ii) apply bias correction to climate data using the Equidistant Quantile Mapping technique; iii) develop reference scenarios for WSF and WSL for the period 2001-2020. Numerical reconstructions of WSL were compared with observations, and multi-model scenarios were compared with reanalysis during the reference period. Future projections were then developed for the periods 2021-2040, 2031-2050, 2041-2060, and using the Generalized Extreme Values theory, probability maps of WSL at different intensity levels were produced. The results highlight that wet-snow phenomena are expected to decrease, as precipitation as rain rather than snow is increasingly likely due to global warming. Instead, these phenomena may

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