The objective of the study described in this report is the evaluation of alternative decarbonisation paths which, while enabling the same reduction in greenhouse gas emissions envisaged by the Fit-for-55 (FF55) package, can promote the development of the industrial fabric, protect the international competitiveness of Italian companies, as well as contain the social cost of the transition. This study is part of a broader collaboration project between RSE and Confindustria [general confederation of Italian industry] (together with its Study Centre).
The alternative energy scenario called “Confindustria” was built with a methodological path similar to the one used for the FF55 scenario, also built by RSE to analyze the impact of the new package of measures published by the European Commission. The two scenarios share some basic inputs: the updating of the socio-economic drivers compared to the PNIEC [Italian Integrated Energy and Climate Plan], the introduction of the COVID effect on energy consumption in the residential sector and on travel demand, the minimum hydrogen consumption provided for in the Preliminary Guidelines and the energy measures of the Italian recovery and resilience plan (PNRR) published in May 2021.
Compared to the FF55 scenario, some economic drivers have been updated (projections of GDP and sectoral AV, but also the price of gas and CO2 emission permits for third sector entities), considering the possible impact of decarbonisation on corporate international competitiveness and the benefits of PNRR investments, and various constraints have been inserted for technical and policy inputs based on the discussions of the technical panel in which Confindustria trade associations participated.
The two energy scenarios feature the same total emission level and differ substantially in some of the constraints and targets that must be achieved by 2030. The FF55 scenario includes all the constraints and targets envisaged in the Fit-for-55 package, while the Confindustria scenario only includes a general emissions reduction target, without sectoral constraints.31