In order to limit global warming to between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the Paris

Agreement, negotiated at COP 21 in 2015, invites signatory countries to communicate by 2020 their “Long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies” to 2050.

From this perspective, the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union (Reg 2018/1999), published in December 2018, required the European Commission to propose a European long-term strategy by early 2019 and Member States to do the same by 2020, presenting national strategies with a horizon of at least thirty years.

RSE supported the Italian government by developing and analyzing different scenarios of full decarbonization for the definition of the National Long-Term Strategy (LTS), proposing a sensitivity of the possible options available in the long term, in line with the new “climate neutrality” targets envisaged by the European Climate and Energy Policy for 2050.

In order to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the energy system will need to use a number of key levers with strong synergies between them:

• the radical change in the energy mix in favor of carbon free sources;
• energy efficiency accompanied by behavioral changes that influence passenger mobility and civil sector consumption;
• a significant electrification of end uses.

The main lever for decarbonization concerns the enhancement of renewable energy sources, accompanied by a more decisive reduction in the use of fossil fuels. The result is an energy mix governed by renewables (at least 80-90%) by 2050.

The strong increase in non-programmable renewable sources (NPRs), however, requires particular attention to the flexibility of the electricity system. In addition to an adaptation of electricity transmission and distribution infrastructures and the installation of new storage systems, Power to X (P2X) technologies designed to transform electricity into heat and energy vectors such as green methane, hydrogen and liquid fuels, will become increasingly important in the European and Italian electricity system.