The three-year objective of this study was to develop modeling tools to support energy system planning, which inherently requires assessments of technological, economic, political, and environmental factors. In the third year, the project reached its planned completion with the creation of a Harmonized Assessment Model (HAM) designed to evaluate the impact of national energy strategies on air quality. This model is composed of several interconnected modules (energy, emissions, air quality, and impacts), each self-contained but appropriately linked.
Specifically, the project involved the extension of the linkage module between the energy and emissions models and the simplified emissions-to-concentrations model to include the non-industrial combustion sector (heating). It also involved the final formulation of the simplified model applicable at the national scale, as well as the update and integration of the impacts and costs module within the modeling chain. Additionally, a software code was developed to automatically manage the various modules of the harmonized model, which was made accessible through the SIMBAD-HAM web application. This application allows even non-expert users to easily estimate the effects of a scenario of interest and provides a user-friendly way to visualize the results.
The sensitivity coefficients underlying the simplified emissions-to-concentrations model were calculated through a series of annual simulations using the CAMx model and the DDM algorithm. The simulation results aligned with expectations and indicated that the simplified model can accurately reconstruct concentration fields determined by a given emissions scenario, also considering the complex interdependence among different pollutants.
The capabilities of the modeling system were explored by defining several energy-emissions scenarios of interest to estimate their impacts. These scenarios were either based on indicators estimated by the RSE’s TIMES energy model, variations in specific activities, or direct changes in emissions of certain species. The results related to health impacts, which are particularly significant in densely populated areas, highlight the dependency not only on the magnitude of concentration changes but also on the population density in areas affected by such changes. The natural evolution of the harmonized model could lead to the development of a fully integrated modeling system (Integrated Assessment Model, IAM).