The evolutionary path of decarbonization experienced two important milestones in 2020, the launch of the “Integrated National Plan for Energy and Climate (PNIEC)” and the introduction of the Green Deal, which meant updated European policies. In the PNIEC, transport plays a major role, since it is associated with approximately 33% of the final energy savings expected for 2020 – 2030 as the second most important sector right after the residential sector and before the industrial and tertiary sectors. The hypothesized actions intend to pursue a containment of the need for mobility, an increase in collective mobility (especially on rail) and a shift of freight transport from road to rail. With the Green Deal comes a new decisive action by Europe to reduce emissions from 40 to 55% and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This will involve new scenarios with a progressive abandonment of fossil fuels, and also further investments. This is the context for the present three-year System Research, aimed at identifying possible approaches to the problem of sustainability in transport from two mobility perspectives, extra-urban and urban.

As a first point, a contextualization of the scope of analysis is provided, describing, in addition to the main European strategies and funding sources related to the transport sector, Italy’s regulatory reform work, its national and local strategies and the different forms of planning and funding of the National Integrated Transport System (SNIT).

The work focused on long-distance travel to complement the activity conducted on the previous year, which had given greater space to urban mobility. A multimodal model for simulating people’s mobility in Italy at an interprovincial level was developed in collaboration with the firm Tandem. The model allows to evaluate travelers’ choices between four modes of transport (road, train, high-speed train and plane), for the purpose of assessing the adoption of sustainable mobility measures and strategies and estimating their energy and environmental impact. The study, similarly to what was done in previous years of System Research at an urban level, is based on the origin/destination matrix obtained from TLC cellular network data, which constitutes a snapshot of mobility demand: this matrix refers in particular to weekdays and divides the national territory into 118 zones, distinguishing provinces from metropolitan cities, which are further divided between the capital city and the hinterland. The transport offer refers primarily to the road and railway networks derived from OpenStreemap which allow the support of road, train and high-speed train modes. The graph of domestic air routes was then added, considering the airports that provide this type of service.

This model was used to simulate a baseline scenario, representative of the current situation, which allowed a first comparison with the national travel balances available in the literature and with the data obtained by processing information from the mobile communication devices of a sample of users for some specific and significant routes. The study will continue in the next year of System Research, when additional scenarios will be developed in order to evaluate the impact of sustainable mobility measures from both a demand and supply perspective. Furthermore, given the particular historical context of the COVID-19 crisis, possible long-term effects of changes in habits and mobility methods caused by the pandemic were also assessed. With respect to urban travel, by analyzing travel information of a representative sample of the population of Milan, Rome and Catania, obtained from the data recorded by mobile communication devices, an analysis was carried out to identify the effects of the lockdown measures envisaged for the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, based on these data and the results on modal choices obtained in the previous year of System Research, an estimate was made of the potential of smart working in the city of Milan, as a solution for sustainable mobility within urban contexts. The data have in fact highlighted how the reductions in consumption and the environmental benefits are comparable to those of other initiatives already hypothesized or implemented, with additional undeniable positive effects on the quality of life of workers.

Finally, the topic of the economic impact of green mobility was also explored through the analysis of the works present in the literature, and this report presents an examination of the methodologies that can be used and the topics addressed in the most recent studies.