In order to support planning activities to increase the resilience of the Italian energy system to cope with climate change, extreme rainfall and strong wind scenarios have been generated to develop a hydrogeological and wildfire risk assessment. In fact, extreme precipitations are at the origin of floods and landslides, such as wind is one of the meteorological variables that contributes to conditions favorable to the trigger and propagation of fires.

Future scenarios at different time horizons in the 21st century were created from the results of several Euro-CORDEX climate models under three different Representative Concentration Pathways.

Meteorological reanalyzes were also considered for the description of historical climatology. About hydrogeological risk, the Italian territory has been characterized by the R99pTOT index, which estimates the percentage of precipitation due to extremely wet days (greater than 99th percentile in the reference period) and the Storm (STO) index, which intercepts the concurrence of extreme precipitation events and moderate/strong winds.

It is likely that rainfall will be more frequent and destructive in the future especially in the Po Valley and eastern coasts, while storms will increase in Central and Northern Italy.

In addition, an investigation was carried out in a test area of the Po River Basin, estimating with the Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) technique the variations in the return times of current rainfall associated with return times of 20, 200 and 500 years. Despite some limitations of the methodology, there is evidence of a long-term trend toward reducing these times, resulting in an increased probability of floods.

Related to fire risk, the evolution of strong wind episodes was studied by means of EVA. The analysis, carried out at different intensity levels, shows no significant signals of change in the anemological regime, indicating that the impact of wind on changes in wildfire risk will be small compared to that expected due to rising temperatures and changes in the rainfall regime.

The update of the CLIMED website, developed to disseminate results related to different climate change scenarios, is also described. Finally, the study dealing with the anomalous CO2 concentration events recorded at the Plateau Rosa station is reported, as well as a description of the activities conducted as part of the ICOS Project and those related to updating the OASI website.

The Report is available on the Italian site