RSE supports the governance of the national energy system by providing its expertise in the development and analysis of scenarios. The complex nature of the energy system, characterized by multiple interconnected dimensions with action and feedback loops, requires the use of tools capable of analyzing the various possible evolution pathways of the system. This complexity is managed through models that incorporate it into a mathematically formalized, yet necessarily simplified and limited, representation of reality.

For years, RSE has utilized models based on the TIMES generator from ETSAP (The Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program), one of the Technology Collaboration Programs of the IEA (International Energy Agency). Specifically, this refers to the TIMES-RSE national model and the MONET multiregional model, which have been used in recent years to generate scenarios supporting the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), the Long-Term Strategy (LTS), and the Green Deal.

The decarbonization goals set at the European and national levels require constant updating and maintenance of these models to introduce new functionalities and/or modify their structure to better analyze new aspects. The report describes the latest developments made to RSE’s TIMES energy models, particularly the introduction of climate zones in the residential sector and technologies for hydrogen production and consumption in the national model. These needs have particularly emerged from long-term analyses, which have shown the necessity to manage the civil sector in greater detail and to introduce new vectors into the energy system.

In addition to the national-level model, RSE also uses and develops the MONET multiregional model. This model, also developed within the TIMES framework, allows for the creation of scenarios with details for the 20 Italian regions. The tool is also used to regionalize the main outputs of the national scenarios and provide zonal-level inputs for RSE’s electricity market simulator (sMTSIM), which analyzes the impacts on the electricity system. The report presents the methodology applied for the regionalization of energy scenarios, with a focus on the residential sector.

Finally, the report includes an update on RSE’s annual contribution to the IEA database concerning energy consumption in the civil sector. This activity provides valuable information for updating historical energy trends and the database of services and technologies in the TIMES models used by RSE.