In this study, the evolution of photovoltaic production capacity was analyzed in the context of future climate change using regional Euro-CORDEX climate models. The currently available Euro-CORDEX simulations are numerous, but according to recent literature, many have issues estimating global solar radiation at the surface due to the exclusion of aerosol trends in the simulations, a factor that leads to significant errors in the climate signal. For this reason, a selection was made considering only the models and simulations that included a temporal evolution of aerosols, both in the historical period and in the scenario. The resulting ensemble was then subjected to bias correction for global radiation and air temperature at 2 meters using observational datasets, specifically SARAH for radiation and MERIDA for temperature.
Data on installed capacity and production were aggregated at the municipal level for the years 2015 to 2017, and two theoretical models were analyzed to calculate photovoltaic production at the municipal level based on the bias-corrected radiation and temperature variables. This allowed for the extraction of production values at the municipal level for the historical period and in the short term (2020-2050) for two climate scenarios (RCP 8.5 and 2.6). The scenarios of photovoltaic potential were then analyzed, focusing on percentage changes compared to the reference period (1986-2005) and aggregating results across different market areas of the national territory.
The results show different behaviors for the two scenarios RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 and clearly indicate how temperature can affect the efficiency of a photovoltaic panel and thus the calculation of production even in a climate change context. The RCP 2.6 scenario, showing a more moderate temperature increase, predicts a statistically significant rise in photovoltaic production capacity in the short term, which does not occur for the RCP 8.5 scenario.

However, even in the best-case scenario, the estimated increase in production is quite limited. Therefore, the sole contribution of climate change is not sufficient to bring about a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and the increase in production from renewable sources can only be achieved through a continuous expansion of the generation capacity, as outlined in the current estimates of the PNIEC.