This report describes the work carried out to define a scenario of electricity demand for end-uses in the Residential and Tertiary sectors. The period considered covers the time interval 2018 – 2050.
To develop the scenario, the main drivers considered were the gross domestic product (GDP), electricity penetration, climate change, and demographic data. The most recent and authoritative forecasts on the growth of the drivers in the short term were considered, whereas for the medium-long term, as a reference for the forecasts on GDP and population growth, the European POTEnCIA scenario was taken as a reference.
A comparison was also made for the demand for services and technological development with the scenario of the NECP (integrated National Energy and Climate Plan) Proposal of 31 December 2018. The calibration to the base year 2018 was also carried out using historical series on the available sales data of end-use technologies in the sectors considered and data on their diffusion. By formulating hypotheses on the evolution of the technologies involved, on their market penetration, and on their methods of use, the demand for services and the resulting electricity consumption were then estimated on a regional basis.
The results obtained highlight the effects of the current economic crisis in the forecast of electricity consumption in the short term. In the long term, the scenario results show an increase in consumption in the Tertiary sector, whereas for the Residential sector the scenario shows a significant reduction in consumption despite a significant increase in the diffusion of electrical technologies for final uses, following technological efficiency and the forecasts adopted on population growth.
An updating activity up to 2017 of a database on some energy efficiency indicators carried out on behalf of the IEA (International Energy Agency) is also described.