The process of decarbonisation of energy systems, underway both in Europe and at a national level, is substantially affecting the electricity system. In the future, distribution networks will need to be able to integrate a greater share of distributed generation (DG) and load (e.g. electric vehicles). They will also have to ensure the participation of the resources connected to the distribution network in dispatching services (e.g. Mixed Enabled Virtual Units, MEVU), on the one hand, and to exploit these resources for local flexibility services, on the other hand. The study of possible future development scenarios and the new potential that network control will have to acquire is therefore preparatory to the evolution of planning tools and the operation of distribution networks.
The activity intends to develop methodologies to conduct detailed local analyses of the large-scale evolution scenario, taking into account the co-presence of different energy carriers (electricity, gas, district heating). The detailed study on the electricity network, carried out in collaboration with Unareti (electricity distributor in the Milan, Brescia and Alto Garda areas), aims to identify, in the various possible alternative scenarios, the potential critical issues and the related consequences on electricity grid planning, also considering the potential benefits from local flexibility services.
This report presents further insights into the methodology developed to define the 2030 development scenarios of distribution networks, with particular attention to the electrification of end uses and the penetration of electric vehicles and Renewable Energy Sources (RES). This document illustrates new hypotheses developed to be able to model evolution scenarios in greater detail, especially those relating to heat pumps for heating/cooling and charging systems for electric vehicles. The analysis was also extended to low voltage networks and, preliminarily, to an urban network with a high specific load. The effects on network components (with a focus on the duration of violations) and their consequences on network planning were highlighted, also in terms of power flexibility requirements to compensate for additional users.