The process of decarbonisation of energy systems, underway both in Europe and at a national level, is substantially affecting the electricity system. In the future, distribution networks will need to be able to integrate a greater share of distributed generation (DG) and load (e.g. electric vehicles). They will also have to ensure the participation of the resources connected to the distribution network in dispatching services (e.g. Mixed Enabled Virtual Units, MEVU), on the one hand, and to exploit these resources for local flexibility services, on the other hand. The study of possible future development scenarios and the new potential that network control will have to acquire is therefore preparatory to the evolution of planning tools and the operation of distribution networks.

The project intends to develop methodologies to conduct detailed local analyses of the large-scale evolution scenario, taking into account the co-presence of different energy carriers (electricity, gas, district heating). The detailed study on the electricity network, carried out in collaboration with Unareti (electricity distributor in the Milan, Brescia and Alto Garda areas), aims to identify, in the various possible alternative scenarios, the potential critical issues and the related consequences on electricity grid planning, also considering the potential benefits from local flexibility services.
This report presents the methodology developed to define the 2030 development scenarios of distribution networks, with particular attention to the electrification of end uses and the penetration of electric vehicles and RES. In addition to the description of the methodology, the criticalities emerged in relation to the retrieval of the necessary data and the assumptions made in building the scenarios are also analysed. The results obtained from the simulation of scenarios in the study networks are described and commented on, highlighting the effects on network components (lines, transformers) and the consequent effects on network planning. Particular attention was paid to the penetration of electric vehicles, for which several case studies were analysed according to the distribution of recharging stations over the territory, contemporaneity coefficients and recharging profiles.