This deliverable is aimed at assessing the environmental externalities associated with electricity generation in Italy through an integrated approach combining Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and monetary indicators. This method merges the comprehensive view of environmental impacts provided by LCA with the synthesis offered by monetized externalities, delivering a clear and communicative representation of the environmental consequences of energy choices.

The study examines the Italian energy mix for 2022 (it is the most recent year for which the statistical data necessary for the analysis is available) and future scenarios projected for 2030 and 2040 within the framework of the PNIEC 2.0. In 2022, electricity generation still relies predominantly on fossil fuels, resulting in significant environmental impacts. However, future scenarios show a substantial increase in renewable sources, mainly photovoltaic and wind energy, leading to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and economic externalities.

The results show a clear decrease in externalities per kWh generated: from €0.096/kWh in 2022 to €0.042/kWh in 2030 and €0.031/kWh in 2040. This reduction, driven by the energy transition, more than offsets the increase in energy demand, which is expected to grow by 13% by 2030 and 27% by 2040. As a result, the total external costs of electricity generation decrease from €30.8 billion in 2022 to €15.5 billion in 2030 and €12.6 billion in 2040.

From a geographical perspective, externalities are primarily concentrated in Italy, while a reduction is observed in emissions attributable to fossil fuel-exporting countries. At the same time, there is an increase in externalities linked to the production of photovoltaic and wind infrastructure, particularly in China, due to the growing adoption of these technologies.

For all analysed energy mixes, the results highlight the predominant role of CO₂ emissions in electricity generation and the effectiveness of decarbonization policies in reducing environmental external costs. Despite challenges related to the production of infrastructure for renewable energy sources, the significant improvement in the environmental performance of future scenarios confirms the need to accelerate the transition toward a sustainable electricity mix.

A methodological novelty of this report concerns the methods of evaluating the external costs of CO2 equivalent, which consists in changing the approach with which the unit values (euro/t) were identified. In the appendix the reasons that led to the change and summarizes the new values are illustrated.

The Report is available on the Italian site