The need to significantly and sustainably reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit further climate change is the basis of the policies outlined by the European Commission for the 2030 horizon, as a reinforcement of the climate-energy package and the 20-20-20 objectives and as a prerequisite for achieving the 2050 objectives of the long-term strategy .

In order for the energy transition (i.e., the transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system) to be effective, it is necessary to check that the reduction of climate-altering emissions occurs along the entire energy production and consumption chain. An aid tool in this regard is the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, thanks to which the potential impacts of a system/product can be evaluated throughout its entire life cycle. Therefore, in this work the Italian electricity scenario and its evolution to 2030 have been assessed from an environmental point of view through LCA. An in-depth analysis of the current and future electricity mix is actually of the utmost importance, considering the push of energy policies towards an electrification of consumption.

Furthermore, the detailed and updated analysis on the current mix (years 2016 and 2017) can act as reference in the LCA field, since the electricity mix enters the life cycle of numerous products and often represents one of the most relevant processes within it. Based on the LCA methodology, the study conducted allowed obtaining an environmental assessment of the evolution scenarios of the electricity system – not only from the climate change perspective, but also by analyzing a more complex environmental profile consisting of numerous impact categories, thanks to which the (not necessarily uniform) effects on the different environmental matrices involved could be assessed. The LCA results show a general decrease of the potential impacts of the Italian electricity mix from 2016 to 2030.

Among the most notable effects is the decrease in GHG emissions (Climate Change impact category), which by 2030 will have dropped by 46% compared to 2016. This decrease is driven by the transition to renewables (mainly wind and PV). Albeit small, the only environmental trade-off occurs between climate change and the impact category relating to resource consumption, and is attributable to the growth of PV systems, even though the progressive penetration of innovative technologies into the market (e.g., the use of heterojunction bifacial panels) could contribute to significantly reducing these impacts. The scenario including the strategic objectives of the integrated National Energy and Climate Plan by 2030 is the one that presents the best environmental profile.