The increasing digitalisation of services and the profound transformations of information technology have made it possible to take a significant step forward in knowing and understanding the behaviour and habits underlying the daily movements of individuals. The research developed in the previous three-year research period and continuing in the present one, and of which this study is the first part, concerns the realisation and use of models for the reconstruction of mobility in urban and suburban areas, to support the evaluation of the effects of possible sustainable mobility interventions/policies.

This study is divided into two macro-themes: urban mobility and extra-urban mobility.

More than 70% of the EU population live in urban areas and about 85% of the EU GDP is generated therein. According to the European Commission, the percentage of the population living in cities will increase to 84% in 2050. Hence the great importance of the quality of life within cities, particularly the larger ones. Mobility is crucial for the quality of life in cities, and therefore, must necessarily become increasingly sustainable, in order, above all, to contain pollutant emissions. Within this context, the analysis of urban mobility was divided into four activities: statistical analysis of the TLC database provided by Vodafone for the study areas of Milan and Parma, construction of a multimodal model for the Milan area with the development of two scenarios, analysis of the Saustainable Urban Mobility Plans of some cities and, finally, study of the state of Local Public Transport by road.

In particular, the study developed in the urban area refers to activities already carried out by RSE during the previous three-year period and delves in depth into the characteristics and potential of the data on urban mobility obtained from the mobile phone traffic data acquired in 2018. Its informative value, the limits on the details that can actually be used and the characteristics useful for a correct reconstruction of mobility demand are assessed.

On the urban scale, the multi-modal model already implemented in previous years was applied, starting from the mobility demand derived from Vodafone’s TLC database for the Milan area, in order to compare it with the previous modelling simulation, associated with the mobility estimate provided by the Municipality of Milan. The model then allowed two scenarios to be simulated, the first focused on the enhancement of public transport, the second supplemented by a significant development of private electric mobility (particularly cars and scooters). Starting from the results provided by the three scenarios (the basic one and the two simulated scenarios), energy and environmental analyses were carried out to obtain the consumption and emissions in the three cases. It emerged that the hypothesised measures would lead to a decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels, particularly in the most extreme case of a strong diffusion of electric vehicles.

The Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan is a mandatory tool available to metropolitan cities or municipalities with a population over 100,000 inhabitants to coordinate studies and projects on the mobility of people and goods in the territory. It is based on a 10-year time horizon and analyses and plans potential investment in infrastructure and management innovations to be implemented in the short, medium and long term, either on a metropolitan or urban and/or supra-municipal scale. Sustainability is addressed under environmental, social and economic aspects. In general, the analysis of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans showed that, contrary to hopes, due to their marked heterogeneity in both form and objectives, these plans cannot be used for a quantitative analysis of environmental improvements within cities, let alone for estimating the costs of urban mobility efficiency measures. However, these plans are a very useful tool for evaluating the feasibility of the mobility scenarios considered and assumed in this study for the city of Milan and, in the previous year, for the city of Parma, and can be extended to other areas in Italy. Urban mobility interventions envisaged by the various scenarios can be compared with those autonomously hypothesised by each city, and this gives important indications on the practical feasibility of theoretical hypotheses.

Italy, in accordance with EU guidelines, has recently activated a series of regulatory measures to support the transformation of Local Public Transport towards sustainability, allocating significant funds to road transport. These measures, among which the most relevant is the one referring to the National Strategic Plan for Sustainable Mobility, make public funds available to the LPT sector, a large part of which is earmarked for the replacement of diesel buses, in urban and extra-urban service, with electric or methane or hydrogen powered buses. The activity described in this report involved analysing the current situation of LPT by road and examining the potential for the sector’s transition towards sustainability in the light of the support policies and actions of the various actors in the field: operators and local administrations, technology providers, grid managers, credit, and also users called upon to responsibly share the effort required by the transformation, which is also a cultural effort, to the benefit of the health and quality of life of all citizens.

With respect to long-distance mobility, the main activities conducted are preparatory to those of next years’ research and have allowed us to gather information at both the demand and supply levels. As far as demand is concerned, the Vodafone TLC database on a national scale was acquired, which depicts inter-provincial mobility, for one year of data, between the 118 areas that make up the Italian territory (the 107 provinces, of which the main 11 are divided between the main municipality and the rest of the province), with details on residence and travel time. As far as supply is concerned, a multi-modal graph necessary for the modelling simulations of the coming years was prepared, integrating road traffic with rail, sea and air traffic, and then focusing attention on the various sources that specifically describe the public transport supply. Data on flights arriving at and departing from Italian airports was also acquired.