This report is an addendum in completion of the research activity for the creation of a model for the Pan-European integrated energy system to be used for the execution of scenario analyses. In particular, in this document a sensitivity analysis on a 2030 scenario to assess the impact on the gas and power systems following the curtailment of gas imports from Russia – as happened as a consequence of the military invasion of Ukraine, in early 2022 – is presented. A further assessment element concerns the impact of the spread of power-to-gas devices for the production of synthetic methane starting from hydrogen obtained by means of electrolysis fed by non-programmable renewable energy sources (RES) overgeneration.

The following three case studies have been considered:
• the reference case, considering full natural gas supply from Russia;
• the first sensitivity case, in which natural gas supply from Russia is totally neglected;
• the second sensitivity case, which contemplates the use of power-to-gas units consuming overgeneration from RES to produce hydrogen to be used in the process of methanation to obtain synthetic methane.

These three cases have been compared in terms of electricity and gas prices, of natural gas flows and imports (in particular of liquified natural gas – LNG), of system capability in covering energy demand and of gas storage adequacy.

The results obtained showed, in particular, that it is impossible to satisfy gas demand in some nodes of the system without Russian supply; natural gas flows through the European transmission network reverse and the main direction becomes south-to-north; LNG imports considerably increase. Synthetic gas production may help in reducing the share of non-satisfied demand, but not completely since they are concentrated in a limited number of nodes.

Here a simple test case is presented: future activities will be brought on to consolidate the energy model and execute more relevant studies.