With respect to the ambitious decarbonization targets defined by the climate-energy policy of the Commission, this work aims to investigate the significance of green hydrogen in the Italian energy system, working on scenario analyses from the short- to the long-term.

Exploiting the national energy system model TIMES-RSE, three alternative scenarios for hydrogen penetration are built, according to the import potentials and national availability, aiming to focus on (i) policy effectiveness, (ii) security of supply, (iii) economic convenience. The first scenario S_POL models a maximum of 30% of the hydrogen demand covered by import (as in NECP 2024); a second scenario called S_IMP assesses that the total demand can be satisfied by import; the third, S_ITA, unlocks only domestic production. The industry and transport sectors are modelled as main consumers of hydrogen, with a demand driven by policy in S_POL and left unconstrained in the other two scenarios.

Results highlight the inefficacy of the current system with respect to the targets to be achieved in the short-term; if the demand is left free (S_IMP and S_ITA), hydrogen consumption is lower than the one fixed by NECP, which appears to be ambitious. From 2040 onwards, the Italian energy system undergoes significant changeover in the energy mix in all the scenarios, with electricity as main driver of the net-zero pathway in 2050, followed by bioenergy and hydrogen.

Specifically, S_IMP satisfies the highest hydrogen demand, while the lowest one is associated to S_ITA, where this limited penetration of hydrogen and e-fuels corresponds to a larger contribution of biofuels. The advantage of totally imported hydrogen is related to the affordability of the import options and to the possibility of exploiting the national electricity for direct electrification. The transport sector is the most promising hydrogen consumer, followed by industry. Moreover, by 2050 the conversion of hydrogen into synfuels will be significant, and it is found also a slight use of hydrogen in the civil sector, when hydrogen availability is higher.

Recognizing the relevance of green hydrogen as complementary option to direct electrification and use of bioenergy, a strategic planning able to exploit the benefits of import and to make possible the development of a national value chain at the same time can represent the optimal solution.

The Report is available on the Italian site