The aim of the report is to describe a national energy scenario responding to the European Plan ‘REPowerEU,’ prepared to analyze the effects of the adoption of the directives, regulations and targets defined in the new plan published by the European Commission in May 2022.
The work is part of the activities supporting the governance of the national energy system.
REPowerEU can be understood as an update and enhancement of that already included in the ‘Fit For 55’ package (already the subject of scenario analysis by RSE in 2021) given and considering recent events, such as the war in Ukraine, which have had major impacts on the global, European and national energy system, and which have led to the emergence of new issues such as the supply of energy carriers and their cost, with particular reference to natural gas.

Therefore, the scenario—called ‘REPowerEU’—was constructed through a methodological process similar to that adopted for the FF55 scenario, sharing some of its key inputs: the socioeconomic drivers, which in turn were developed to take into account post-COVID effects; the energy measures of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan; and the overall goal of climate neutrality to 2050.
The REPowerEU scenario, on the other hand, differs in terms of constraints and 2030 targets concerning renewables, energy savings and efficiency, and diversification of the energy mix with the aim of decreasing dependence on natural gas. In addition, assumptions have been included regarding mobility demand and energy production from renewable sources based on some recent studies.

The report is divided into two main parts: the first recalls the Fit For 55 package and highlights the new features introduced by the REPowerEU plan; the second illustrates the projections of the scenario by 2030, with a focus on the main economic and production sectors, providing a comparison with the FF55 scenario and historical data as at 2021.