To achieve the 2030 decarbonization goals, the PNIEC (National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan) requires significant growth in distributed generation and a push towards the electrification of consumption (e.g., heat pumps, electric vehicles) connected to distribution networks. For these reasons, it will be necessary to enhance the networks both through traditional development operations (e.g., reinforcement of lines) and by adopting advanced control systems in a Smart Grid context. The aim of the activities described in this report is to apply the planning methodologies developed in the previous research report to analyze potential future scenarios. These methodologies aim to quantify, as loads and generators increase, the investments needed to reinforce distribution networks and compare them with the benefits of advanced control systems. Due to the lack of some information (e.g., the geographical coordinates of nodes) and the high number of networks to process, the planning procedures are based on certain simplifying assumptions, which allow for reduced data requirements and faster processing, enabling various sensitivity analyses.

Future scenarios have been created based on synthetic networks representative of the Italian power system developed previously and consider the increase in electric mobility, the spread of heat pumps, photovoltaic generation, and associated energy storage systems. The report details the results of the planning procedures under varying assumptions used to construct the scenarios (e.g., electric vehicle charging profiles). Since the study of synthetic networks focuses on the reinforcements needed for the medium-voltage distribution network, results from other activities and historical data from distributors (DSO) studied in previous research periods are used to estimate other required operations, such as those in low voltage.

The results of these analyses show that significant investments will be needed to enhance the distribution network to connect new loads and generators. These operations can be reduced by adopting advanced control systems, which utilize distributor assets and generator power modulation.