RSE collaborated with GSE to draft a study, requested by Mise, which assesses the national potential for high-efficiency cogeneration (CHP) and efficient district heating (DH), developed based on the guidelines of Annex VIII of Directive 2012/27/EU, and replaced by Regulation March 4, 2019, No. 2019/826/EU. Specifically,

the study analyzed the potential for implementing CHP and DH from the perspective of system optimization within the context of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) objectives.

Two cascading TIMES models were used: thanks to the recent development of the representation of climate zones for thermal needs in the TIMES-RSE model (TIMES-ZC module), it was possible to analyze the RES targets set by the PNIEC according to climate zones and assess the optimal development of DH and CHP by 2030 with TIMES-RSE. The multiregional TIMES MONET model was then used to distribute national results among different regions, considering existing constraints for each region.

The study began with the assessment of heating and cooling needs and consumption in the civil sector and their future evolution, considering significant detail from geographical, sectoral, technological, and usage perspectives. The technical potential evaluations for efficient heat, DH, and CHP estimated by GSE represented one of the main inputs for the TIMES models used in scenario analysis. The technical potential represented the maximum application constraint for efficient heat in the scenario.

The territorial and sectoral data on heat demand and supply (technical potentials) provided by GSE were thus reprocessed in the current planning and optimization tools of the national energy system (TIMES) to update what was proposed in the PNIEC in light of new results in CHP and DH, while ensuring the achievement of energy and climate objectives.

The results highlighted the various possibilities for achieving the potentials of DH and CHP in the civil and industrial sectors, analyzing the results obtained at the level of individual regions. Finally, the analyzed scenario was compared with the PNIEC scenario to highlight the main features and differences with the introduction of new potentials for DH and CHP.