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A Probabilistic Approach to Power System Security Assessment under Uncertainty

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

pubblicazioni - Memoria

A Probabilistic Approach to Power System Security Assessment under Uncertainty

La memoria propone un approccio di Probabilistic Power Flow basato sul metodo dei cumulanti, per valutare in modo probabilistico il punto di funzionamento del sistema elettrico tenendo conto delle incertezze previsionali sulle iniezioni (generazione rinnovabile, carichi) e delle correlazioni fra le iniezioni stesse.

The deepening penetration of renewable resources, such as wind and photovoltaic solar, has introduced additional uncertainty into power system operation and control. This added uncertainty, together with the conventional sources of uncertainty, the loads and the availability of resources and transmission assets, makes clear the limitations of the conventional deterministic power flow in power system analysis and security assessment applications. Therefore, the explicit consideration of uncertainty requires the deployment of probabilistic approaches so as to provide the ability to manage the wide spectrum of all possible values of the input and state variables. In this paper, we make use of cumulant-based probabilistic power flow methodology to account for correlations among the input random variables. Extensive testing indicates good performance of probabilistic power flow. We illustrate application of the probabilistic power flow on the 14-bus IEEE test system and present a comparison with the result obtained by the computationally more demanding Monte Carlo approach.

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

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