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Algorithms for Electrical Power Time Series Classification and Clustering

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

pubblicazioni - Articolo

Algorithms for Electrical Power Time Series Classification and Clustering

Serie storiche orarie dell’errore di previsione di potenza hanno diversi profili e distribuzioni. Migliaia di esse sono analizzate automaticamente da 4 algoritmi, che individuano: numero di picchi della distribuzione, due tipi di clusters di variabili multimodali con somma unimodale, separazione della somma nei suoi addendi.

The EU-FP7 project iTesla developed a toolbox aimed to assess dynamic security of large electrical power systems, taking into account the forecast uncertainties.The inputs consist in hourly historical time series of forecasts and realizations of thousands of active power injections from renewable generators, and of active and reactive power absorption of the load, in the high voltage French transmission grid. Data show a deep variety of distribution functions and profiles in the time domain.

The statistical analysis of historical dataset is very important in order to characterise and them. In particular, the multimodality of the variables has to be identified in order to adapt the sampling technique developed in the iTesla toolbox, thus assuring accurate results also for this subset of variables. Moreover, clustering some variables reduce the dimension of the problem, which represents an important advantage while analysing security on very large power systems.

The paper describes 4 algorithms: The 1th looks for the number of distribution”s peaks and classifies the variables into unimodal or multimodal; the 2th and the 3th cluster and multimodal variables and combine them into unimodal ones, because they are more suitable for the subsequent computation. All of them are part of an advanced tool for automatic data description, that pre-processes the raw data and produces descriptive statistics on them. The 4th algorithm back-projects the sum of two series into the original components.

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

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