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An efficient method to take into account forecast uncertainties in large scale Probabilistic Power Flow

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pubblicazioni - Memoria

An efficient method to take into account forecast uncertainties in large scale Probabilistic Power Flow

Questo articolo presenta un metodo efficiente per tenere conto delle incertezze di previsione nelle applicazioni di load flow probabilistico, basate sulla combinazione delle tecniche PCA (Principal Component Analysis) e PEM (Point Estimate Method), nel contesto di studi di pianificazione dell’esercizio applicati a reti AC molto estese.

The simulation of uncertainties due to renewable and load forecasts is becoming more and more important in security assessment analyses performed on large scale networks. This paper presents an efficient method to account for forecast uncertainties in probabilistic power flow (PPF) applications, based on the combination of PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and PEM (Point Estimate Method), in the context of operational planning studies applied to large scale AC grids.

The benchmark against the conventional PEM method applied to large power system models shows that the proposed method assures high speed up ratios, preserving a good accuracy of the marginal distributions of the outputs.

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

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