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Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

pubblicazioni - Articolo

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

In questo articolo è stimato l’impatto della qualità dell’aria sulla salute umana e sui costi sanitari ad essa associati in Europa e USA per l’anno 2010 nell’ambito dell’iniziativa AQMEII3.

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the health impacts and external costs. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20% anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP2).

In Europe, the multimodel mean total number of premature deaths is 414000, while in the US, it is 160000. The economic valuation of these health impacts is EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A total of 54000 and 27500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20% reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively.

A 20% reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of about 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20% decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20%avoids about 2000 total premature deaths in the US.

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