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Contingency screening starting from probabilistic models of hazards and component vulnerabilities

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

pubblicazioni - Memoria

Contingency screening starting from probabilistic models of hazards and component vulnerabilities

Il lavoro descrive un approccio probabilistico e uno strumento di screening delle contingenze , basato su modelli probabilistici a breve termine delle minacce correnti, naturali o provocate dall’uomo, e da modelli di vulnerabilità dei componenti del sistema elettrico e dei sistemi ICT.

The need to analyze high-impact low-probability events on power systems, due to natural and man-related threats calls for comprehensive approaches to security assessment, which exploit the concept of risk. The paper describes a probabilistic approach and a tool, developed in the EU research project AFTER, aimed at selecting the most critical contingencies to be analysed in depth, starting from short-term probabilistic models of incumbent natural or man-related threats and from component vulnerability curves in an integrated power and ICT system.

A fast estimate of the contingency impact is obtained by using topological metrics. Results on a realistic power system include the sensitivity analyses of different contingency selection options, and the verification of the performances of the estimated impact metrics for screening purposes.

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

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