TRENDS OF ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS Walter Grattieri*, Maria Rosaria. Alabiso*, Umberto Ciarniello*, Lorenzo Croci* 9th IAEE European Energy Conference, Firenze 10-12 giungo 2007 *CESI RICERCA 1. Overview The electricity consumption of the productive sectors depends on the combination of economic and technology drivers such as the Added Value and the Electric Intensity, being the first one a proxi for the level of energy services required and the latter an indicator of both the equipment specific consumption and the penetration of electricity among the energy end uses. This paper analyses the trends in Italy of the above mentioned drivers, both at national and regional level, to the aim to produce updated electricity consumption forecasts for the most important Industrial sectors and the Tertiary. 2. Methods The methodology applied to forecast the Added Values implements an innovative approach that jointly takes into account both historical data and possible future scenarios about the economic expectations for the country. Trends of Electric Intensity are obtained through linear and non-linear models that best fit the time series. 3. Results The result of the work is the evolution of the consumptions drivers and the amount of energy demand underlying a given economic growth. The analysis is performed both at regional level and for the main consumption drivers. The following figure represents the national electricity demand forecast, obtained by combining a given economic scenario and the Electric Intensity inferred with the study. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year GWh / year Energetic products Metallurgy Mechanical engineering Food Textiles and clothing Construction materials Chemicals and petrochemicals Paper industries Other manufacturing activities Building National electricity consumption forecast of the main Industrial sectors

Under a given growth scenario, it is expected that Industry, Agriculture and the Tertiary sector will jointly need in 2020 about 380 TWh, with a very sharp increase of the Tertiary demand (average rate: + 4.95% per year). 4. Conclusions Trending techniques are flexible instruments to perform demand forecasts for a short to medium term. The horizon can be extended to 10-15 years when, as outlined in this paper, a reference growth scenario can be merged with the time series to produce a “constrained trend”. For longer term forecasts it is necessary to resort to simulation methods that can take into account new events and variables, that do influence the demand but are not fully incorporated into the time series. References [1] ISTAT –Conti economici nazionali – Tavole di dati: Serie storiche – 28 marzo 2006 http://www.istat.it/dati/dataset/20060314_01/ [2] ISTAT – Conti economici regionali – Tavole di dati: Serie storiche – 20 dicembre 2005 http://www.istat.it/dati/dataset/20051220_00/ [3] Terna – Consumi energia elettrica per settore merceologico, nazionali e regionali http://www.terna.it/ita/statistiche/italia.asp?ANNO=2004&AREA=Italia [4] MSE Ministero dello Sviluppo Economico/DGERM/Osservatorio statistico energetico – “Scenario energetico tendenziale al 2020”, maggio 2005 http://dgerm.attivitaproduttive.gov.it/dgerm/scenarioenergetico/scenario_energetico_tendenziale_al_202 0_vers05_05.pdf [5] David M. Levine, Timothy C. Krehbiel, Mark L. Berenson “Basic Business Statistics” ed. Prentice-Hall http://www.pearsoned.co.uk/Bookshop/detail.asp?item=100000000104728 [6] Ricerca di Sistema, Secondo Periodo, Progetto SCENARI/EDEN, “Previsione della Domanda di Energia Elettrica in Italia nel 2030”, n. prot. A4519504, novembre 2004. http://www.ricercadisistema.it/Documenti/SintesiDoc.aspx?idN=1242&idD=286653 [7] Ricerca di Sistema, Secondo Periodo, Progetto SCENARI/EDEN, “Previsione tendenziale della domanda elettrica 2010 – 2030 su base regionale ed elementi di variabilità per la costruzione di scenari alternativi”, n. prot. A5023397, maggio 2005. http://www.ricercadisistema.it/Documenti/SintesiDoc.aspx?idN=1242&idD=306019 [8] Il modello “MATISSE” per la costruzione di scenari del sistema elettrico. Rivista Energia Elettrica 1/2006, pagg. 50 – 61.