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Estimating risks for Italian Energy Sector from projected climate change

pubblicazioni - Memoria

Estimating risks for Italian Energy Sector from projected climate change

Sulla base di simulazioni numeriche con modelli regionali ENSEMBLES e Med-CORDEX sono state ottenute delle proiezioni future delle variazioni attese. I risultati indicano un aumento dei rischi di condizioni climatiche più severe: più giorni con temperature estremamente elevate in estate sull’intera area, più casi di inondazioni e temporali sui litorali costieri in primavera e autunno e maggior episodi di neve bagnata sulla regione alpina in inverno.

A better understanding of vulnerabilities of electric system is necessary for defining measures to achieve a better resilience against threats from climatic changes.

Both gradual climate changes (as temperature increase) and extreme weather events (such as flooding and storm) may represent severe risks for energetic infrastructure vulnerability, energy demand and production, with remarkable social and economic impacts. The purpose of this study is to analyze climate changes, above all changes in some extreme events, for the forthcoming decades over Italy to support the development of national adaptation policies and measures addressing climate change in energy sector.

Future projections have been elaborated and analyzed on the basis of the results provided by regional models of ENSEMBLES and Med-CORDEX archives. The results indicate an increasing risk for some severe weather conditions: more days of extremely high temperature in summer over the whole area, a greater occurrence of flooding and storms over coasts during spring and autumn seasons and a more serious wet-snow event over Alpine region in winter.

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