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pubblicazioni - Memoria

Estimation of sliding failure probability of a gravity dam

pubblicazioni - Memoria

Estimation of sliding failure probability of a gravity dam

In questo lavoro la probabilità di rottura dello scorrimento di un monolite svedese della diga a gravità, in diverse condizioni di carico, è stata valutata con il metodo di Montecarlo.

In this paper the sliding failure probability of a Swedish gravity dam monolith, under different load conditions, has been evaluated by the Montecarlo method. Two limit-state functions defining the sliding stability were considered, assuming probabilistic distribution functions for the main static loads acting on the dam (ice, jacking force, hydrostatic and uplift pressures, dead weight) as well as for the mechanical properties at the concrete-rock interface and rock-joint (friction and dilation angles).

Failure probability values Pf and reliability indexes β, for different failure modes, have been calculated and compared with the acceptable target safety index for the structure under consideration, according to the Swedish code. Finally, the Bayesian updating procedure, to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimation of the mean value and standard deviation of the friction angle at the concrete-rock interface, has been used and Pf and β have been consequently updated.

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