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Examples of Use of Weather Forecasts for Flood Forecasting

pubblicazioni - Memoria

Examples of Use of Weather Forecasts for Flood Forecasting

Under certain circumstances hydropower reservoirs may be used to attenuate and delay floods in order to contribute to protect the downstream territory. Moreover flood forecasting is very important to optimize reservoir management. In this paper we present the comparison between observed and forecast flood events for three Italian river basins of different size and geographical location. The runoff data were calculated using a rainfall-runoff model whose input consists of precipitation data elaborated from two limited area meteorological models. We adopted a simple methodology for coupling meteorological and hydrologic model: the input of the hydrological rainfall-runoff code has been yielded by averaging the hourly precipitation forecasts provided by the meteorological model over each sub-basin. In spite of the uncertainties due to the poor coherence among the different time and space scales of meteorological and hydrologic models, we investigated the predictive capabilities of this simple coupling of the two models. In general, the results show that the uncertainty of the predictions increases with decreasing basin area upstream the river section but, even in the case of small basins, these estimates may provide useful information both for dam operators and civil protection

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