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Impact of climate change scenarios on waterpower in the Italian Alps

pubblicazioni - Articolo

Impact of climate change scenarios on waterpower in the Italian Alps

Stefano Maran*, Roberto Ranzi**, Stefano Barontini**, Giovanna Grossi** Paolo Scaroni**, Nickolas Kouwen*** Annual Conference on Hydraulic Engineering 2009 Dresda, 12-13 Marzo 2009 * CESI RICERCA SPA ** UNIVERSITÀ DI BRESCIA *** UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO In order to evaluate the possible effect of a climate change on the hydropower production in the southern Alps, the runoff regime of two case-study watersheds (1840 and 236 km² in size) was projected on the basis of IPCC scenarios for the 2000-2099. The WATFLOOD hydrological model was applied to long term continuous simulations. A decrease of a few percent of runoff volume available for the 2050 scenario is expected, due to an increase of evapotranspiration losses. The estimated decrease is even higher for the 2090 scenario. Also the runoff regime changes are not negligible with a decrease from 3% to 14% projected to 2050 and 2090, thus affecting the strategies to meet the 20%-20%-20% commitment by the European Commission to fight global warming.

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