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Influence of anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions to multi-model simulations of major air pollutants over Europe and North America in the framework of AQMEII3

pubblicazioni - Articolo

Influence of anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions to multi-model simulations of major air pollutants over Europe and North America in the framework of AQMEII3

Nell’ambito della terza fase dell’iniziativa AQMEII e come contributo alle attività HTAP2, sono stati simulati gli impatti in una riduzione del 20%delle emissioni antropiche per mezzo di diversi modelli di chimica e trasporto (CTM).

In the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3), and as contribution to the second phase of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP2) activities for Europe and North America, the impacts of a 20% decrease of global and regional emissions are simulated by means of different chemistry and transport models (CTMs). The emission perturbations at global level, as well as over the HTAP2-defined regions of Europe, North America and East Asia are first simulated by the global ECMWF IFS model, which provides boundary conditions to the various CTMs participating in AQMEII3.

Results show that the largest impacts over both domains are simulated in response to the global emission perturbation. The response to a 20% percent emission reduction for NO2, SO2 and PM is almost linear (~20% decrease) within the global perturbation scenario with however, large differences in the geographical distribution of the effect. NO2, CO and SO2 levels are largely affected over the emission hot spots. O3 levels generally decrease in all scenarios by up to ~1% over Europe, with increases over the hot spot regions. Over the North American domain, the central-to-eastern part and the western coast of the U.S experience the largest response to emission perturbations.

The RERER metrics have been calculated in order to calculate the differences in the strengths of non-local source contributions to different species among the different models. The large RERER values over Europe and North America for O3 (~0.8), show a larger contribution of non-local sources, while for other pollutants including particles, low RERER values show that these pollutants are largely controlled by local sources.

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