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Risk Analysis for the Safety Assessment and Management of Penne Dam

pubblicazioni - Memoria

Risk Analysis for the Safety Assessment and Management of Penne Dam

Per valutazione della sicurezza delle dighe è stata sviluppata una metodologia di analisi del rischio in grado di includere in maniera sistematica la stima probabilistica delle tre componenti che concorrono alla definizione del rischio: pericolosità, vulnerabilità e conseguenze. La metodologia sviluppata è stata applicata alla valutazione della sicurezza della diga di Penne (PE), una diga in terra zonata con nucleo impermeabile.

Dam safety assessment combines information from several sources (design, construction, operation, materials, monitoring, etc.), aimed at evaluating the structural integrity of the whole dam-reservoir system. As most of these data are strongly affected by uncertainty, their nominal values are usually assigned deterministically with conservative safety margins. Nevertheless, such assumptions might fail to ensure the required safety level and, instead, a probabilistic approach should be adopted to properly handle uncertainties.Risk analysis methods involve the overall study of dam-reservoir system, starting with gathering information and finishing with risk quantification, and integrate all processes for dam safety evaluation in risk models capable to aggregate all risk components (hazard, vulnerability and consequences).In a previous work a framework to analyze and to assess the dam risk was developed. In this paper the framework has been applied to the safety assessment of Penne dam, a zoned earth dam with an impervious core, owned and operated by Consorzio di Bonifica Centro. The 34 m high dam was built between 1962 and 1969 to create an artificial reservoir of 9 million m3 to provide irrigation to the Tavo-Saline rivers district in the Abruzzo region.The documentation relevant to dam-reservoir system was gathered, digitized and carefully examined. The collected information along with the discussion among dam technicians, managers and dam safety experts allowed to achieve a good insight of the overall system, by identifying hazard scenarios, main deficiencies, failure modes and consequences. The resulting event trees have been developed, critically evaluated and properly combined to provide the overall risk picture. Moreover, the major achievements, in terms of added values in comparison to the traditional practices for safety assessment of dams have been highlighted and the possible remedial measures to mitigate the risk have been identified. That will provide a consistent basis for further analysis refinements and decision making.

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