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Uncertainties of simulated aerosol optical properties induced by assumptions on aerosol physical and chemical properties: an AQMEII-2 perspective

pubblicazioni - Articolo

Uncertainties of simulated aerosol optical properties induced by assumptions on aerosol physical and chemical properties: an AQMEII-2 perspective

Lo stato dell’arte della modellistica atmosferica è costituito da un nuovo approccio che integra i processi meteorologici e chimici, permettendo di effettuare analisi più accurate del ruolo delle diverse fonti antropiche, comprese quelle energetiche. Qui vengono analizzati i risultati ottenuti nella ricostruzione delle proprietà ottiche degli aerosol.

The calculation of aerosol optical properties from aerosol mass is a process subject to uncertainty related to necessary assumptions on the treatment of the chemical species mixing state, density, refractive index, and hygroscopic growth. In the framework of the AQMEII-2 model intercomparison, we used the bulk mass profiles of aerosol chemical species sampled over the locations of AERONET stations across Europe and North America to calculate the aerosol optical properties under a range of common assumptions for all models.

Several simulations with parameters perturbed within a range of observed values are carried out for July 2010 and compared in order to infer the assumptions that have the largest impact on the calculated aerosol optical properties. We calculate that the most important factor of uncertainty is the assumption about the mixing state, for which we estimate an uncertainty of 30-35% on the simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA). The choice of the core composition in the core-shell representation is of minor importance for calculation of AOD, while it is critical for the SSA.

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