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pubblicazioni - Memoria

Verification and upgrades of an advanced technique to model forecast uncertainties in large power systems

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

pubblicazioni - Memoria

Verification and upgrades of an advanced technique to model forecast uncertainties in large power systems

La memoria si concentra sul processo di verifica e possibili miglioramenti delle prestazioni di un modello, inizialmente sviluppato nell’ambito del progetto iTesla UE, che calcola le distribuzioni multivariate di errori di previsione di carico e rinnovabili, sulla base di serie di dati storici e condizionate al punto di lavoro previsto della rete.

The increasing penetration of renewables in a liberalised market environment makes more and more crucial the need to evaluate the dynamic behaviour of the grid and to cope with forecast uncertainties in operational planning and quasi-online environment. The EU FP7 project iTesla addressed these needs and achieved several major objectives, including the definition of a platform architecture, a dynamic data structure, and dynamic model validation.

Specifically, one of the modules of the platform runs a model to compute the multivariate distributions of renewable and load forecast errors, based on historical data series and conditioned to the specific forecast state of the grid, with the aim to sample the “uncertainty region” of states around the forecast state. However, the model performance assessment needed to be completed. Therefore, the paper focuses on the verification process of the model performances and on the potential upgrades to provide a satisfactory trade-off between accuracy and predictive capability.

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#Rete elettrica #Sicurezza

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