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Contingency screening starting from probabilistic models of hazards and component vulnerabilities

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pubblicazioni - Memoria

Contingency screening starting from probabilistic models of hazards and component vulnerabilities

Il presente lavoro propone una metodologia probabilistica per valutare la Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) fra aree di rete, che tiene conto delle incertezze sull’errore di previsione applicando il Point Estimate Method (PEM) combinato con la trasformazione normale polinomiale del terzo ordine (TPN). L’approccio è confrontato con un metodo convenzionale di valutazione dell’NTC attraverso l’applicazione ad una rete test IEEE.

In operational planning, researchers propose methods to assess the effect of uncertainties of power system operating condition due to forecasting errors of intermittent generation and loads. In particular probabilistic power flow methods are used to calculate the probability distributions of the voltages and the branch currents, starting from the distributions of power injections/absorptions.

These uncertainties play a key role in the operational planning of power systems, as certain configurations of load and intermittent generation can cause security problems. This paper proposes a probabilistic methodology to assess Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) among network areas, which quantifies forecast error uncertainties by applying the Point Estimate Method (PEM) combined with Third Order Polynomial Normal (TPN) Transformation. This approach is compared with a conventional NTC assessment technique and has been tested on an IEEE test system.

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