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Raising awareness on climate-change related hazards that might impact electric infrastructures

pubblicazioni - Memoria

Raising awareness on climate-change related hazards that might impact electric infrastructures

Sono stati studiati i cambiamenti di temperatura e precipitazione e le variazioni di alcuni eventi estremi in Italia, sulla base delle più recenti simulazioni climatiche ad elevata risoluzione spaziale. I risultati indicano un inasprimento delle condizioni climatiche nel corso del secolo.

There is an urgent need for an effective and harmonized framework to develop climate resilient solutions to ensure the necessary level of security in energy production and supply. This study aimed to analyze the incremental changes of temperature and precipitations, and the changes of some extreme events such as droughts, storms and floods, wet-snow and cold-waves, as well as fire danger over Italy at medium and long terms.

The investigation has been done on the basis of high-resolution climate models provided by three EU-funded Projects: ENSEMBLES, Med-CORDEX and Euro-CORDEX under different green-house gas forcings. The climate change scenarios have been characterized by comparing the current climate (1971–2000) with medium (FUT1=2021-2050) and long term (FUT2=2051-2080) future scenarios. The more significant results highlight a warmer climate (1-1.5°C), above all in summer with a temperature increase of about 2°C and precipitation reduction of 20% by 2050. The heat waves occurrences will likely increase of about 20-30% in FUT1, and 40-50% in FUT2 scenario.

Instead wet-snow events are expected to damp ranging from less than -5% to -10% over the century. Analogously cold waves are likely to reduce of about 10 – 20% and 30 – 40% in FUT1 and FUT2 scenarios. Lastly, it is expected a lengthening of fire season and an increase of fire danger of at least 20% by 2050 in most of Italy in summer.

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